Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
