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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest field is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans rising collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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