Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
